The war in Ukraine has reached a critical juncture. As European leaders rally around President Volodymyr Zelensky, the battlefield reality paints a grim picture. With Russia advancing and Ukraine’s forces stretched thin, the debate over continued Western support intensifies. Is Europe’s unwavering backing of Ukraine securing peace—or playing directly into Vladimir Putin’s hands?
Following a tense visit to Washington, where Zelensky struggled to secure additional U.S. support, he was met with a hero’s welcome across Europe. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and other leaders reaffirmed their “unwavering” support for Ukraine.
“You have full backing across the United Kingdom,” Starmer told Zelensky, pledging to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” Similar sentiments echoed across Europe, with promises of continued military aid despite growing battlefield setbacks.
However, some analysts argue that this diplomatic push reveals more about Ukraine’s dire position than its strength. Facing declining Western support and a stalled counteroffensive, Zelensky’s insistence on total victory may be pushing Ukraine further into a dangerous stalemate.
The Battlefield Reality: Russia’s War of Attrition
On the ground, the war has taken a brutal turn. Ukraine’s failed 2023 counteroffensive, despite massive Western military aid, demonstrated the resilience of Russian defenses. In 2024, Russia has steadily advanced, employing a methodical war of attrition.
Key Military Developments:
- Russian Gains: Russia has captured 4,500 km² in the past year, while Ukraine has only reclaimed 500 km².
- Manpower Disparity: Russia has over 700,000 troops on the front, compared to 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers, many of whom are exhausted and inexperienced.
- Artillery Superiority: Russia received 3 million shells from North Korea, while Ukraine has only received 1.6 million from Western allies.
- Ammunition Shortages: Ukrainian forces are struggling to maintain artillery fire, while Russia continues relentless missile and drone strikes on critical infrastructure.
- Morale Crisis: Some Ukrainian units are refusing to fight, with reports of soldiers deserting under the strain of continuous warfare.
A Comparison: Ukraine vs. Russia in a War of Attrition
Austrian military expert Markus Reisner compared the conflict to a boxing match between an underdog and a heavyweight champion. Ukraine, like a smaller boxer, had early successes but is now being worn down by Russia’s sheer size and endurance.
This raises a key question: How long can Ukraine sustain this war?
Trump’s Offer: A Missed Opportunity for Peace?
Former President Donald Trump has proposed a ceasefire and peace negotiations, arguing that Ukraine cannot win on the battlefield. His administration sought to tie U.S. financial interests to Ukraine’s future through a minerals deal, aiming to create long-term incentives for peace.
However, Zelensky publicly rejected the deal, leading to a diplomatic fallout with Washington. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz expressed frustration, questioning whether Zelensky truly wants peace or if he is committed to fighting indefinitely, regardless of the cost.
“It’s not clear that Zelensky truly wants to stop the fighting,” Waltz stated. “Trump wants peace, but in order to negotiate, both sides have to come to the table.”
With the U.S. scaling back financial and military aid, Ukraine’s reliance on European support has grown. But can Europe alone sustain Ukraine’s war effort?
Europe’s Commitment: Determination or Denial?
Despite mounting battlefield challenges, European leaders remain steadfast in their support for Ukraine. Yet, their vision for “peace” appears indistinguishable from total Ukrainian victory—a highly unlikely outcome given the military realities.
Key Statements from European Leaders:
- Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission President): “We will continue working with you for a just and lasting peace.”
- Kaja Kallas (EU Foreign Minister): “Ukraine is Europe. We will step up our support so they can continue to fight back the aggressor.”
- French President Emmanuel Macron: “There is an aggressor, which is Russia, and an attacked people, which is Ukraine.”
Notably absent from these statements is any mention of a negotiated peace. Instead, the focus remains on military aid and continued resistance.
The Russian Perspective: A Shift Toward Total War?
While Western leaders encourage Ukraine to keep fighting, Russia sees these decisions as justification for further escalation. According to Russian sources, the rejection of peace proposals has only reinforced the Kremlin’s belief that a military solution is the only path forward.
Austrian Colonel Markus Reisner warns that if Ukraine and the West refuse to negotiate, Russia may expand its war aims:
- Seizing all land east of the Dnieper River to create a buffer zone against future NATO threats.
- Capturing Odessa and cutting Ukraine off from the Black Sea, effectively making it a landlocked state.
- Potentially advancing toward Kyiv, if Ukrainian forces collapse.
Putin can now claim that Russia has repeatedly offered peace, only to be rebuffed by Ukraine and its Western backers. This strengthens his domestic and international position, making continued Russian aggression appear justified rather than reckless.
Europe’s Dilemma: What Comes Next?
The Munich Security Conference underscored Europe’s growing anxiety. Trump’s administration has made it clear that U.S. military intervention in Ukraine is off the table, and NATO will not provide security guarantees.
With the U.S. stepping back, Europe faces a critical choice:
- Take full responsibility for Ukraine’s defense—an option that would require massive increases in military spending and likely direct intervention.
- Seek a negotiated settlement—risking accusations of appeasement but potentially saving Ukraine from total destruction.
Conclusion: Is Europe Playing into Putin’s Hands?
The war in Ukraine has entered a dangerous phase. While European leaders stand firmly behind Zelensky, the battlefield reality suggests that continued fighting may only lead to greater losses. By rejecting peace talks and insisting on total victory, the West may inadvertently be helping Russia achieve a much larger victory in the long run.
The world must now ask: Is prolonging the war truly in Ukraine’s best interest? Or is it time to face the hard truth and negotiate a peace that preserves as much of Ukraine as possible—before it’s too late?